Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Jim Thome Joins the Minnesota Twins

Jim Thome was drafted in the 13th round of the 1989 draft by the Cleveland Indians. That didn't stop him from becoming one of the best power hitting lefties of the last two decades.

Thome started his career at 3rd base, playing his first 6 years in the majors at the position. In 1996, his sixth year at 3rd base for the Indians, he stepped up to the next level. That year, he drove in 116 RBI's and hit 38 home runs while batting .311! After the 1996 season, Thome was switched to first base. He didn't lose any of his offensive abilities when he switched, producing outstanding numbers throughout his career. From 2003 through 2005, he played for the Philadelphia Phillies where he continued to produce elite numbers. From 2006 to late 2009, he played for the Chicago White Sox. For the White Sox, he has absolutely crushed Minnesota Twins pitching. Most Twins fans remember him as the guy who hit the 7th inning home run off Nick Blackburn in game 163 in 2008 to gain the lead (and eventually win 1-0). In late 2009, Thome finished the season with the Dodgers, his fourth team since joining the majors in 1991.

Many Twins fans are probably very excited about the signing this week of Jim Thome. He is a power hitter, hitting 564 career home runs. Jim Thome is going to be a great help for the Twins this year, but what position will he be playing? Jason Kubel is already the DH, and they will not bench him. He hit 28 home runs this year and 103 RBI's. Kubel is also left handed, which is why many are confused about why the Twins signed a leftie DH in Thome. There is also no way the Twins bench Delmon Young and put Kubel in left field. Well, the reason the Twins signed Jim Thome was probably not to play him at DH, it was to have him off the bench as a pinch hitter.

The Minnesota Twins pinch hitting has been pretty bad for a long time. The Twins have been looking for a top bench bat for a while now. Jim Thome is a great player, but he is 39 years old. Here are his numbers for the last 4 years:

Year

Tm

Lg

G

PA

AB

R

2B

HR

RBI

BB

SO

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

GDP

2006

CHW

AL

143

610

490

108

26

42

109

107

147

.288

.416

.598

1.014

4

2007

CHW

AL

130

536

432

79

19

35

96

95

134

.275

.410

.563

.973

10

2008

CHW

AL

149

602

503

93

28

34

90

91

147

.245

.362

.503

.865

17

2009

TOT

MLB

124

434

362

55

15

23

77

69

123

.249

.366

.481

.847

8

Looking at his numbers, his slugging production started to diminish from 2006. His BA was .39 less in 2009 than 2006. He also hit 19 less home runs, and only 77 RBI's. Part of the reason his numbers are diminishing is he is getting less AB's. One concern is that his BA has been getting lower and lower over the last four years. The good news is he kept around the same batting average about .250 in 2008 and 2009, so I don't expect the BA to drop significantly lower.

Many people are wondering, what should be expected of Jim Thome this year for the Twins? Well, anywhere between 200 and 350 AB's should be expected. He will probably get about 3-4 AB's per series, mainly as the pinch hitter. Once in a while, he might start at DH to give Kubel a day off. That will increase the amount of AB's he has.

I expect him to have between 15 and 20 home runs along with about 60 RBI's. His BA should be around .250. These numbers might not seem very high, but for only half the amount of AB's he would normally get, these are pretty good numbers. They are also by far the best numbers the Twins have had off the bench in a long time.

How much are the Twins paying for Jim Thome this year? Here is the breakdown of his contract (This contract information is from mlbtraderumors.com, link to the article: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/01/twins-agree-to-terms-with-jim-thome.html) :

The contract is a 1 year contract worth $1.5 million. He also gets a $100k bonus for passing 250, 300, and 350 PA's. He will also get a $150k bonus for passing the 400, 450, and 500 PA's.

This essentially means he could get up to $2.25 million after incentives. I am going to guess though that he will not get more than the first 3 bonuses. So my guess is he gets $1.8 million total.

Is this a great deal for the Twins? Considering Thome got $13 million last year, this is an outstanding bargain for the Twins. The Twins get a reliable pinch hitter with the ability to tie or win a big game with one swing of the bat. For the numbers he should produce, he will be worth every penny of the contract.