Twins Overlook

Is Franchise Back?

2010-04-29T13:27:00.001-05:00

In 2006, Francisco Liriano completely dominated baseball, holding the #2 pitcher role behind Johan Santana. Had Cy Young winner Santana not been at the top of the rotation, Liriano would have been the number 1 pitcher. Liriano was a rookie in 2006, but his pitching line made him look like he was in his prime. He was 12-3 with a 2.16 ERA in 121 innings. Oh, and he also had 144 strikeouts. That's right, he had a 10.7 strikeout/9 inning ratio. For a 22 year-old to do that was unreal. For comparison, the strikeout king (Nolan Ryan) only achieved a higher strikeout/9 inning ratio twice in his career (11.3 and 11.5). Furthermore, he kept hitters to a .205 BA for the season. Sandy Kofax never achieved a higher ratio than Liriano's 2006 year (his best was a 10.5 strikout/9 inning ratio). Steve Carlton never achieved a higher ratio either, with his highest being an 8.7. Randy Johnson is one of the only pitchers who has had a better ratio than Liriano, doing so 12 times in his career.

People considered Liriano's slider in 2006 as downright filthy. The ball would come right down the plate and then all the sudden it dropped into the dirt to right-handed batters. In 2006, his slider was also over 90 MPH, so it looked like it was coming in as a fastball. Very few pitchers have that type of slider and it is simply devastating.

The problem with this slider was that he put an immense amount of torque on his elbow, which caught up to him later in the season. Toward the end of the season, he had an elbow injury causing him to miss most of September along with the post-season. The end result was that he had to get Tommy John surgery. An injury requiring Tommy John surgery is the biggest nightmare for a pitcher. You have to miss a full year to recover, and then there is still the chance that you will never be as good as you were prior to surgery.

Liriano came back in 2008 at age 24, going 6-4 with a 3.91 ERA in 76 innings. His strikeout ratio dropped considerably, only posting a 7.9 strikeout/9 inning. These numbers were not terrible for just coming back from Tommy John surgery. A sub-4 ERA is very nice to do at a young age. When comparing his 3.91 ERA to the 2.16 ERA back in 2006, it shows that he definitely did not fully recover from the surgery.

In 2009, Liriano was no better. Actually, the numbers were so bad, that he was moved to the bull-pen at the end of the season. His record was 5-13 with a 5.80 ERA in 132.6 innings. Many people started to give up on him at this point.

When all hope was lost, a miracle happened. It started when he dominated winter ball last year. When he came to Spring Training, many people thought he was the dark horse to win the 5th spot in the rotation. He was battling Glen Perkins and Brian Duensing throughout Spring Training for the job, but in the end, Ron Gardenhire gave Liriano the nod.

In Liriano's first game this season, he gave up 3 runs in 6 innings against the White Sox. It was a quality start, but he did give up 5 walks. In his second game, he pitched 7 innings of scoreless baseball against the Red Sox, walking only 2 batters and giving up 4 hits. He also had 8 strikeouts in the game. His slider started to look very close to the same as back in 2006. In his third game this season, he had another scoreless outing of 8 innings against the Indians. His latest outing was another phenomenal outing, going 8 shutout innings with 10 strikeouts.

So far this season, he has a .93 ERA in 29 innings, which is leading the American League. He has kept batters to a .180 BA thus far this season. What is amazing is that he is holding left-handed batters to a .087 BA (2-23). Why is that important? Most power hitters bat left-handed. The stat is saying that Liriano is shutting down almost every left-handed batter in each teams' lineup. That is really impressive.

We will have to see how he does though for the rest of the season. If he continues to pitch like he has so far this season, people will start to call him Franchise again (his nickname back in 2006 because of how dominant he was). I think that he has already showed that he has returned to form, but we will just have to wait and see.

Twins at Angels Game 1 Opening Day

2010-04-06T14:31:00.005-05:00

The Minnesota Twins played hard yesterday in the first game of the season, but in the end, a loss was recorded. The Twins were very close until the 8th inning, when Mijares gave up back to back home runs to start the inning. Pat Neshek came in though and pitched great getting the Twins out of the inning. The Twins could not come back in the 9th against Brian Fuentes, losing the game 6-3. There were a couple key opportunities for the Twins, one in the 6th inning and one in the 7th. Both times the bases were loaded with 2 outs. Both times, the Twins could not score.

Most trouble at the plate: Denard Span. Span had a lot of trouble, going 0-5 with 3 strikeouts. He looked lost at the plate all night. Hopefully he can come back today with a better performance.

Hottest hitter at the plate: Delmon Young. Young went 2-4 with a home run. If this kind of performance continues throughout the rest of the season, the Twins will be quite pleased.

How did the starter do? Scott Baker was unable to get through 5 innings, giving up four runs in 4.2 innings. He struggled early, as it looked like he couldn't find the plate. Throwing 31 pitches after only the first inning isn't a great way to start the game. Baker gave up 5 hits and 3 walks while getting 3 strikeouts.

Here is the box score, followed by a recap of some of the highlight innings:

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
MIN (0-1)	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0		3	7	0
ANA (1-0)	2	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	x		6	9	0

Minnesota	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	SO	LOB	AVG
Span, CF	5	0	0	0	0	3	1	.000
Hudson, O, 2B	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	.333
Mauer, C	4	0	1	0	0	1	1	.250
Morneau, 1B	3	1	1	0	1	1	3	.333
Cuddyer, RF	3	0	1	0	1	1	1	.333
Kubel, DH	3	0	0	0	1	1	2	.000
Young, D, LF	4	2	2	2	0	0	4	.500
Hardy, SS	4	0	1	0	0	1	1	.250
Punto, 3B	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	.000
a-Thome, PH	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000
Harris, B, 3B	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000

Minnesota	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA
Baker, S(L, 0-1)	4.2	5	4	4	3	3	1	7.71
Crain	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.00
Mijares, Jo	0.2	3	2	2	0	0	2	27.00
Neshek	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0.00

Bottom of 1st: Nothing was hit well, but Baker gave up 2 runs in 31 pitches.

Top of 2nd: 2-run home run was hit by Delmon Young. It was a fantastic swing with the ball right on the inside of the plate. He drilled the ball into the left field stands.

Bottom of 2nd: Scott Baker gave up a solo home run to Jeff Mathis to straight away center.

Top of 3rd: Hudson shot a ball off the top of the center field wall for a 2-out double. Mauer struck out after though to end the inning

Top of 5th: Delmon Young gets on base, steals second, moved to third by Hardy, then sac fly by Nick Punto to bring him in.

Bottom of 5th: 1 run was scored off of Baker. He then leaves the game for Jesse Crain who finished the inning.

Top of 6th: Delmon Young hit a lazy fly ball to left with the bases loaded and 2 outs.

Top of 7th: Morneau hit a line drive out to the first baseman with the bases loaded and 2 outs.

Top of 8th: Fernando Rodney comes in throwing wild, walking Cuddyer. The Inning ended quickly after that though after Kubel popped up on a hitters count.

Bottom of 8th: Mijares gave up back to back home runs. He was then replaced by Pat Neshek who did outstanding.

The starter for game 2 is Nick Blackburn. Blackburn likes the big games, here is a big one early in the season.

Box Score and logos are from mlb.com

Minnesota Twins Resign Hometown Hero Joe Mauer

2010-03-21T20:10:00.001-05:00

According to www.twinsbaseball.com, the Minnesota Twins have resigned Joe Mauer to a eight-year $184 million contract which will run through 2018, an average of $23 million a year. This contract includes a full no-trade clause. The reason for the no-trade clause is probably because Mauer doesn't want trade ideas to swirl around later in his career. This way Mauer can be assured he will be in Minnesota for at least another eight years. The contract will last until he is 34, so this contract will go right through his prime years.

This contract was probably made to be compared to Mark Teixeira's eight-year, $180 million contract signed last year with the New York Yankees. This is the fourth highest contract in MLB history, behind Derek Jeter ($189 million with the New York Yankees) and Alex Rodriguez ($275 million with the Yankees and $252 million with the Texas Rangers).

This is a very expensive contract for the Minnesota Twins to give Joe Mauer as this takes up over 20% of the Twins' payroll. The Yankees have a lot more money to spend than the Twins, so seeing the Twins spend this kind of money is a little surprising. The reason the Twins did it though is because they almost had to. If the Twins did not resign Joe Mauer, there would have been many very unhappy taxpayers considering they just spent a lot of money on Target Field. Fans also wanted Mauer to stay because he was born in Minnesota, making him an idol to baseball fans (including kids) throughout Minnesota. The front office of the Twins needed to keep the fans happy, and they did.

There are also a lot of new season ticket holders and the Twins would like to keep them while upgrading the smaller season ticket packages such as the 20-game and 40-game programs. Losing Mauer would likely have had a very negative effect on retention and upgrading.

Joe Mauer had a line of .365/.444/.587 with 28 home runs and 96 RBIs in the 2009 season. Not only did he lead the American League in BA, OBP, and Slugging, but he also racked up his 3rd batting title in 4 years and his 1st MVP award. Defensively he was spectacular, earning himself his 2nd gold glove in as many years. At just 26 years old, Mauer can still get better.

Joe Mauer is by far the best catcher in baseball right now, and is starting to turn into one of the best of all-time. He is a team leader and for many, the face of the Minnesota Twins franchise.

This contract may look large, but the Twins cannot pass up the opportunity to keep one of the best catchers of all-time.

A Look at Spring Training - Problems Being Solved

2010-03-21T11:30:00.004-05:00

Spring Training is getting closer and closer to completion, but there are some issues requiring Gardenhire's attention. Let's take a look at a couple of the current questions remaining. The answers could be vital in how the season plays out.

Will Francisco Liriano become the closer in place of Joe Nathan since Joe Nathan cannot pitch this year?

While many sportswriters have said that Liriano is an option for the closer role, and even though this was being talked about in the clubhouse, Liriano will not be the closer this upcoming year. According to www.twinsbaseball.com, Ron Gardenhire said that Liriano is going to be a starter, not a closer. This is an issue that this was lingering in the clubhouse throughout Spring Training, and it needed to be solved as it was probably a big distraction. Will that mean that he will get the fifth spot in the rotation? He has been lights out so far in Spring Training. Liriano was amazing in Winter Ball also this year, so he has been consistently good. His slider is making hitters look foolish. It seems as unhittable as it was in 2006. All doors are open for Liriano if he continues to pitch at his 2006 form. As it looks right now, I think he will win the 5th spot in the rotation over Brian Duensing and Glen Perkins.

Will the Twins need another relief pitcher since Nathan cannot pitch this year?

The Twins are probably going to be looking for another pitcher to solidify the bullpen. Reports recently say that the Twins have been looking at Heath Bell for the job. The Twins would have to trade the San Diego Padres for him, but he would be worth it. Bell has been a very good pitcher over the years. If he comes to the Twins, he would probably be placed in the closer role. How much will Bell cost the Twins though in trade? Kevin Towers (Former General Manager of the Padres), said that if he was still the General Manager of the Padres, he would want Aaron Hicks, Ben Revere, or Angel Morales from the Twins in exchange for Heath Bell. All three of the players are outfield prospects for the Twins, and very highly touted prospects at that. I rated Aaron Hicks 1st on my Twins top prospect list, Ben Revere 4th, and Angel Morales 8th. For now I think the Twins would rather not trade Hicks or Revere, but Morales might be expendable. If the Padres offer Bell for Morales, I would pull the trigger. The Twins have a surplus of outfield prospects while they don't have nearly as many relief pitching prospects. Heath Bell would really contribute to the Twins bullpen, so hopefully the Twins will work something out.

There is less than two weeks left in Spring Training, but there are still more problems to be solved. Some problems include who will win the starting third base job and who will make the finals cuts for the 25-man roster out of Spring Training. Those and more will be topics that I will cover before the end of Spring Training. Stay tuned.

A Look at Spring Training - Pitchers to the Rescue

2010-03-16T20:02:00.007-05:00

The Twins have completed about 2 weeks of Spring Training. In the two weeks, some players have shined, while others have struggled. There are some players that are either coming back from serious injury, or trying to return to form from a previous injury. Let's take a look at a couple players.

Francisco Liriano

Liriano has been outstanding so far in his 4 innings of work. He pitched two in two games so far and it looks like no one can touch his pitches. Reports are saying that his slider has just been unhittable. Does that remind you of the Liriano from 2006? If he wins the 5th spot in the rotation and pitches like he did in 2006, that would be a huge luxury for the Twins to have. There has been some talk about putting Liriano in the closer role since Joe Nathan became injured. No one knows right now if Joe Nathan will be able to return at all this year. Hopefully he will be ok, but the Twins need to start looking at other options because the chances that Nathan is going to play this year are slim to none. There are a few options for the closer role internally, but Liriano is not the best option. While a closer needs to be able to get a big strikeout and Liriano's slider meets the requirement, he would be much more useful as a starting pitcher. As an effective starter, he would be much more useful for the Twins than putting him at closer. It is a lot easier to find a closer than a dominant pitcher (if he comes back like he was in 2006). I think Gardenhire will probably feel the same way.

Pat Neshek

Neshek was dominant in 2007, when he just missed making the All-Star team. In 2008 though, he experienced a problem with his elbow. This was more than just a problem though, this was a serious injury. The injury required Tommy John surgery. He missed over a year, but it looks like he could be back for the start of the season. Will he be as dominant as he was prior to the injury though? Well, so far in Spring Training, he has been lights out. Pitching 3 innings so far in as many games, he has yet to allow a run. His pitches look very promising going into the regular season. If he can pitch like he is right now, he could be a huge help in the bullpen. Is he the possible answer to the closer position. Just a couple years ago, there was a little talk about Neshek possibly getting a chance at closing once Nathan was gone. Neshek definitely has the pitches to close out games, though he is a valuable as a set-up man and the Twins need an effective eighth inning pitcher. He was extremely good at holding ballgames in the 8th inning for Nathan in the 9th. I think that if he comes back strong this year, it will be in the set-up role, not closer.

If these two players can contribute this season at a high level, thisMinnesota Twins team could get one step closer to the end result almost 20 years ago.

Look back often for more about Spring Training throughout the remainder of it. Spring Training has a few more weeks left, and then it is off to the Regular Season! The Twins have a very good team this year, and could very easily make it deep into October.

What to Expect for the Twins at Spring Training - Part 2

2010-02-18T12:21:00.010-06:00

The Twins' Spring Training approaches. What should we expect this year? What players could surprise and maybe win an Opening Day spot or later call up? The last article answered some popular questions. In this post, the Spring Training posts will continue with a couple more popular questions and will try to provide some answers.

Who is the "sleeper" player to watch for at Spring Training that might make the Opening Day roster?

If there is going to be a "sleeper" pick that makes the Opening Day roster this year, it is going to be a bullpen arm. I think Anthony Slama has the best chance to be that "sleeper." Slama was drafted in the 39th round in 2006, but that hasn't held him back. In 2008, Slama had a 1.01 ERA in A-ball as the primary closer for the team. He had 25 saves along with having a 110/24 SO/BB ratio in 71 innings. That is incredible. In 2009, he didn't have as great of a year, but he still did very well. He spent the majority of the year in AA, where he had a 2.48 ERA in 65.1 innings. Toward the end of the year, he was promoted to AAA where he had a 3.45 ERA in 15.2 innings. Being 26 years old, he will definitely get a chance to make the roster this year. He will have to pitch lights out at Spring Training though to win a bullpen spot.

Which player on last year's 25-man roster will have to fight for a spot?

I think Jose Mijares is going to need to fight extremely hard in Spring Training to secure a spot in the bullpen. With Pat Neshek returning, the bullpen will need one less arm. Mijares was great most of last year, but he struggled the last few weeks during an important playoff run and in the playoffs. When he needed to be clutch, he didn't quite have it. He will have to prove that he deserves a bullpen spot.

That is the end of my Q&A's for what to expect for the Twins at Spring Training. Hopefully they have a great year. I am going to try and cover a lot of what is going on at Spring Training this year. Stay tuned.

What to Expect for the Twins at Spring Training

2010-02-10T19:54:00.009-06:00

Spring Training is right around the corner again. Pitchers and catchers report soon. Many people have several questions about what should be expected this year at Spring Training. Who will win the starting third base job? Will Jacque Jones make the opening day roster this year as an outfielder? Those questions and more will be answered below.

Who will win the starting 3rd base job?

Right now, the 3rd base job seems to be a three-way race. The three players are: Danny Valencia, Brendon Harris, and Nick Punto. Let's take a look at each player.

Danny Valencia:

Valencia is the top 3rd base prospect for the Twins. Many people have high hopes for him. In 2009, he played for both the Double-A and Triple-A minor league teams. Last year, Valencia had a .284/.373/.482 line in 218 AB's in Double-A before getting promoted to Triple-A. In Triple-A, he batted a .286/.305/.454 line in 269 AB's. The main problem he had once he got to Triple-A was his SO/BB ratio. He is still very young though, and I think he will strive under the pressure for getting the starting 3rd base job. It will still be difficult for him to get the job, but he should be able to get his SO/BB ratio back up to a reasonable level.

Brendon Harris:

He is not that great of an option for 3rd base. Harris has very below-average power for a 3rd baseman. He only had 6 Home Runs and 37 RBI's in 414 AB's last year. His BA wasn't that great either, only having a .261 BA. At least with Valencia, you can expect to see some decent power numbers.

Nick Punto:

Punto is the one player that will seriously push Valencia for the starting 3rd base job. Punto really isn't that great offensively, but the Twins like him. Gardenhire is also a huge fan of Punto, so the 3rd base job is definitely open to him. One reason Gardenhire likes Punto is because of his defensive skills. He actually isn't that great defensively looking (UZR wise), but he does make the top ten plays on ESPN every once in awhile. The one advantage Punto does have is he is being paid $4 million next year. It's hard financially for a team like the Twins to keep a $4 million player as a super utility infielder.

The verdict? There will be a big battle between Punto and Valencia, but in the end, I think Valencia will get the starting 3rd base job.

Will Jacque Jones make the opening day roster?

Jacque Jones had his highlight earlier in the decade with the Twins, but recently, he has done really bad for other teams. He didn't even play in 2009. Jones gets to return to the Twins, where he had a lot of success. He will have to earn a major league spot though as he only got a minor league contract. Jones is going to have to be lights out in Spring Training to get a chance at a roster spot. One of the main reasons that it will be tough for him is because of the surplus of outfielders already on the major league roster. Right now, the Twins outfielders are: Delmon Young, Michael Cuddyer, Denard Span, and Jason Kubel. Nick Punto could also play in the outfield also if there is an emergency situation. For this reason, I don't think Jones will make the opening day roster. There is a chance though that he could be called up during the season if someone gets injured. Jones will be toward the top of the call-up list for outfielders, so there is a very high chance fans will get to see his face with a Twins cap another time.

Will Francisco Liriano finally be back to 2006 form?

Liriano has surprisingly been lighting up Dominican Winter League, having an 1.54 ERA in 11.2 innings. The amazing part is that he has a 17/2 SO to BB ratio. Moreover, his ground out to fly out ratio 1.71 to 1, which is great. He is showing a lot of promise going into Spring Training. I think this could be Liriano's big year, though only time will tell.

How much of an improvement will Orlando Hudson be at 2nd base to last year's second basemen?

Orlando Hudson will be a huge improvement. He will also be an upgrade defensively at 2nd base. Most of the games last year at second base were played by Nick Punto. Orlando Hudson is an upgrade from Nick Punto at Home Runs, BA, along with a lot of other stats. At Spring Training this year, Hudson will show Twins fans just how good he is. Hudson is just the player the Twins needed at 2nd base. Orlando Hudson should have a great year for the Twins in an already great lineup.

Will Pat Neshek be back to his dominant self before injury this upcoming season?

Pat Neshek was a dominating pitcher in both 2006 and 2007. In 2008, he struggled a little bit before getting injured with what ended up requiring Tommy John Surgery. Can he come back healthy and in 2006/2007 form this year? Absolutely. In Pat Neshek's website (http://www.eteamz.com/patneshek/), he said his mechanics are starting to come together and his confidence is increasing. This is always a good sign when coming back from Tommy John Surgery. I think he will come back write off the Tommy John Surgery as a success and be the dominating bullpen arm he was in 2006 and 2007.

I will continue in the next week with another handful of questions people might have.

Jim Thome Joins the Minnesota Twins

2010-01-27T21:27:00.013-06:00

Jim Thome was drafted in the 13th round of the 1989 draft by the Cleveland Indians. That didn't stop him from becoming one of the best power hitting lefties of the last two decades.

Thome started his career at 3rd base, playing his first 6 years in the majors at the position. In 1996, his sixth year at 3rd base for the Indians, he stepped up to the next level. That year, he drove in 116 RBI's and hit 38 home runs while batting .311! After the 1996 season, Thome was switched to first base. He didn't lose any of his offensive abilities when he switched, producing outstanding numbers throughout his career. From 2003 through 2005, he played for the Philadelphia Phillies where he continued to produce elite numbers. From 2006 to late 2009, he played for the Chicago White Sox. For the White Sox, he has absolutely crushed Minnesota Twins pitching. Most Twins fans remember him as the guy who hit the 7th inning home run off Nick Blackburn in game 163 in 2008 to gain the lead (and eventually win 1-0). In late 2009, Thome finished the season with the Dodgers, his fourth team since joining the majors in 1991.

Many Twins fans are probably very excited about the signing this week of Jim Thome. He is a power hitter, hitting 564 career home runs. Jim Thome is going to be a great help for the Twins this year, but what position will he be playing? Jason Kubel is already the DH, and they will not bench him. He hit 28 home runs this year and 103 RBI's. Kubel is also left handed, which is why many are confused about why the Twins signed a leftie DH in Thome. There is also no way the Twins bench Delmon Young and put Kubel in left field. Well, the reason the Twins signed Jim Thome was probably not to play him at DH, it was to have him off the bench as a pinch hitter.

The Minnesota Twins pinch hitting has been pretty bad for a long time. The Twins have been looking for a top bench bat for a while now. Jim Thome is a great player, but he is 39 years old. Here are his numbers for the last 4 years:

Year	Tm	Lg	G	PA	AB	R	2B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	GDP
2006	CHW	AL	143	610	490	108	26	42	109	107	147	.288	.416	.598	1.014	4
2007	CHW	AL	130	536	432	79	19	35	96	95	134	.275	.410	.563	.973	10
2008	CHW	AL	149	602	503	93	28	34	90	91	147	.245	.362	.503	.865	17
2009	TOT	MLB	124	434	362	55	15	23	77	69	123	.249	.366	.481	.847	8

Looking at his numbers, his slugging production started to diminish from 2006. His BA was .39 less in 2009 than 2006. He also hit 19 less home runs, and only 77 RBI's. Part of the reason his numbers are diminishing is he is getting less AB's. One concern is that his BA has been getting lower and lower over the last four years. The good news is he kept around the same batting average about .250 in 2008 and 2009, so I don't expect the BA to drop significantly lower.

Many people are wondering, what should be expected of Jim Thome this year for the Twins? Well, anywhere between 200 and 350 AB's should be expected. He will probably get about 3-4 AB's per series, mainly as the pinch hitter. Once in a while, he might start at DH to give Kubel a day off. That will increase the amount of AB's he has.

I expect him to have between 15 and 20 home runs along with about 60 RBI's. His BA should be around .250. These numbers might not seem very high, but for only half the amount of AB's he would normally get, these are pretty good numbers. They are also by far the best numbers the Twins have had off the bench in a long time.

How much are the Twins paying for Jim Thome this year? Here is the breakdown of his contract (This contract information is from mlbtraderumors.com, link to the article: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/01/twins-agree-to-terms-with-jim-thome.html) :

The contract is a 1 year contract worth $1.5 million. He also gets a $100k bonus for passing 250, 300, and 350 PA's. He will also get a $150k bonus for passing the 400, 450, and 500 PA's.

This essentially means he could get up to $2.25 million after incentives. I am going to guess though that he will not get more than the first 3 bonuses. So my guess is he gets $1.8 million total.

Is this a great deal for the Twins? Considering Thome got $13 million last year, this is an outstanding bargain for the Twins. The Twins get a reliable pinch hitter with the ability to tie or win a big game with one swing of the bat. For the numbers he should produce, he will be worth every penny of the contract.

2010 Projections for the Possible Twins Lineup

2010-01-11T20:04:00.021-06:00

I wrote an article a little over a month ago making my predictions for the starting lineup next year. Now it is time to take a look at how each player in the lineup might do next year. I am going to give a description of how they did last year and what to expect this year.

1. Denard Span: CF

2009 Season: .311 BA/.392 OBP/.415 SLG/8 HR/68 RBI's

Denard Span is an interesting player. He was drafted in the first round back in 2002. Drafted mainly for his speed, he was considered a very good prospect. He had a couple problems though in the minors. Power was a concern, he had very little of it. Span hit only 10 home runs in his 7 year minor league career. For the first 5 seasons of his minor league career, he was poor at hitting doubles. Finally, a small problem was that he got caught stealing 1 out of every 3 times when trying to steal in his minor league career. All these issues caused many fans to disregard Span and consider him a bust. Well, that changed in 2008. He was called up in the middle of 2008 due to outfield injuries, and he has never looked back. In 347 AB's, he hit a whopping 6 home runs, batted .296, and had a 60 to 50 SO to BB ratio! His OBP was a .387! Finally, he drove in 47 RBI's. These stats changed the way most fans, along with the Twins Organization, thought about him. Span ended the 2008 season finishing 6th in the Rookie of the Year award.

In 2009, Span followed up his great 2008 season with an even more outstanding season. Looking at his numbers above, he improved even more from a level many people didn't expect. Span was considered one of the best lead-off hitters in the AL, and I can see why. Batting in 68 RBI's while getting on base almost 40% of the time in the lead-off spot is considered very hard to do. The one thing he hasn't really improved on is his bad SB to CS percentage since being in the minors. If he can just improve that percentage, he will be an even more complete player.

What should be expected of him next season? I think that for starters, he has to be up for consideration for an All-Star appearance. I think that Span could very easily duplicate those same numbers again. He might even get some better pitches this year to hit as he will probably be hitting in front of J.J. Hardy, instead of Brendon Harris or Orlando Cabrera. The more years he can continue to hold these numbers in the lead-off position, the more people will vote for him to make an All-Star appearance.

2. J.J. Hardy: SS

2009 Season: .229 BA/.302 OBP/.357 SLG/11 HR/47 RBI's

J.J. Hardy played for the Milwaukee Brewers last year before getting traded during this off-season for Carlos Gomez. Hardy is considered a great defensive shortstop, along with being one of the better offensive shortstops in the majors. In 2007 and 2008, he averaged a whopping 25 home runs at shortstop while batting around .280. His issue though was in 2009. His numbers dropped off dramatically, hitting only .229 with 11 home runs. Hardy was eventually sent down to the minors in August because of his offensive struggles. Many people don't know why his offense struggled last year. His career shows that he has hit a lot better in the second spot of the lineup than any other spot. Maybe if he hits second in the lineup for the entire next season, his numbers might go back up.

What should people expect from him in 2010? My prediction is that he will be able recover from his offensive struggles in 2009 and be the hitter he was in 2007/2008. A change of scenery might help. Expect him to hit around .275 with 20 home runs while batting second.

3. Joe Mauer: C

2009 Season: .365 BA/.444 OBP/.587 SLG/28 HR/96 RBI's

Mauer is a pretty special player. Having 3 batting titles at catcher, and an MVP award now under his belt, he has very high expectations going into next year. The really exciting thing that Mauer accomplished last year, is not something everyone knows about. Mauer lead the American League in BA, OBP, and Slugging. The important thing about this though, is what this means for him. Almost every player in the past who has achieved this feat is in the Hall of Fame. If Mauer continues to hit like he has in his career, he will be a sure lock for the Hall of Fame.

Taking a look at his stats last year, he has one glaring thing he improved on from previous years: his power. Going from 8 home runs in 2008 to 28 in 2009, he has now gained that one missing piece from making him a complete player. He also increased almost every other stat. The amazing thing is that he did all this while missing the whole first month of the season due to injury. Looking into 2010, he should be able to produce very similar numbers again if not even better. The reason he could hit better is as stated above, he missed the first month of last season. 30 home runs, 100 RBI's, and a .350 BA isn't unreasonable.

4. Justin Morneau: 1st

2009 Season: .274 BA/.363 OBP/.516 SLG/30 HR/100 RBI's

Having his now third 30 home run/100 RBI season, he is considered one of the best 1st basemen the Twins have ever had. One thing that noticeably picked up this year was his defense. He looked much more like a gold glove player than the sub-par defense he used to have. Unfortunately, his season ended about a month short when diagnosed with a stress fracture in his lower back. He was in line to probably hit atleast 35 home runs with 120 RBI's if he didn't get injured.

There are a couple glaring questions. Will he recover from his injury? How will he produce next year? It sounds as if Morneau will be healthy come Spring Training. Another 30 home run/100 RBI season could be in the cards for the 2006 MVP winner.

5. Michael Cuddyer: RF

2009 Season: .276 BA/.342 OBP/.520 SLG/32 HR/ 94 RBI's

In 2008, Cuddyer couldn't stay off the disabled list. A broken finger was the first problem. When in the process of rehab, he broke his foot playing for the Rochester Redwings. Garret Jones' line drive nailed him in the foot while he was on first base. Two big injuries shortened his season to just 71 games. His power was down, along with almost every other stat.

In 2009, things seemed to change for Cuddyer. His offensive stats greatly increased, sporting his first 30 home run season. He was a key contributor in the Twins race for the division title. When Morneau got injured, Cuddyer was the one that took his place at first base. After that happened, Cuddyer steped up and helped lead the team to a division title.

What should be expected out of Cuddyer in 2010? Will he be the player he was in 2009, or 2008? While maybe not having the same power numbers as he had in 2009, he definitely won't have the same stats as 2008. Expect somewhere around 20-25 home runs with 90 RBI's.

6. Jason Kubel: DH

2009 Season: .300 BA/.369 OBP/.539 SLG/28 HR/103 RBI's

Jason Kubel was a top prospect for the Twins back in 2004. He got a September call-up in 2004, and he hit so well that he got to be on the post season roster for the Twins against the Yankees. After the season was over though, a tragic injury in the Arizona Fall League occured. He collided into outfielder Ryan Raburn, and badly injured his knee. A torn ACL was just one of the things that happened. He missed the entire 2005 season. Many thought he might never be the same player that he used to be. Since 2006, he has improved in every year. In 2007, he hit 13 home runs and had 65 RBI's. In 2008, he hit 20 home runs and had 78 RBI's.

In 2009, there were many signs that he had fully recovered from his knee injury. He batted .300 for the first time in a full season in the majors. Second, he hit 28 home runs, eight more than in the previous season. Finally, he had his first 100 RBI season, driving in 103 total. Kubel ended up being a major contributor in the 2009 season for the Twins.

Now that it looks like he has fully recovered, he should be expected to repeat his 2009 numbers. He might even do better. About 30 home runs and a tleast 100 RBI's is definitely possible for the Twins Designated Hitter.

7. Delmon Young: LF

2009 Season: .284 BA/.308 OBP/.425 SLG/12 HR/60 RBI's

Delmon Young was traded in 2007 to the Twins from the Tampa Bay Rays. Young was a number 1 overall pick in 2003, so organizations have had very high expectations for him. In 2008, Delmon Young hit .290 with 10 home runs and 69 RBI's. Young had a fairly good 2008 season for being only 22 years old, though he did have one problem. He wouldn't listen to the coaches. The coaches started saying he wasn't coachable. Young would only listen to his father for hitting advice as he was Young's coach throughout high school.

In 2009, Young started out the same way as 2008, not listening to the coaches. About half way through the season though, he started to listen. He worked on changing his weight distribution while hitting. After these changes, he started hitting lights out. He had considerably better stats in almost every category in the second half than the first half.

Now that he is listening to the coaches, he could continue to excel in 2010, just as he did in the second half of last year. His second half stats show that he should be able to hit 20 home runs next year, and that should be the case. Twenty home runs, 80 RBI's, and a .290 batting average is a very realistic line for next year.

8. Brendan Harris: 3rd

2009 Season: .261 BA/.310 OBP/.362 SLG/6 HR/37 RBI's

Brendan Harris was traded to the Twins in 2007 along with Delmon Young from the Tampa Bay Rays. He was expected to be the starting second baseman, filling a hole that always seems to escape the Twins' ability to find a long-term solution. With Nick Punto holding that position down for now, and no one playing third base, Harris has now been playing more at third.

In 2009, Harris had a down year. Almost all his stats have considerably dropped each year since 2007. His OBS (On Base+Slugging Percentage) has dropped over 100 points from 2007 to 2009. With Danny Valencia waiting in the wings, Harris will need to have a great spring training or else he might lose that 3rd base job.

If he does play at third in 2010, expect somewhere around a .265 BA with 7 home runs and 50 RBI's.

9. Nick Punto: 2nd

2009 Season: .228 BA/.337 OBP/.284 SLG/1 HR/38 RBI's

In 2009, Nick Punto was the primary second baseman for the Twins. Don't expect that to change come 2010. Ron Gardenhire really likes him, particularly for his great positive influence in the clubhouse. He is also a great defensive player, and for batting ninth, his numbers aren't the worst. Yes, a .228 BA isn't that great, but the .337 OBP is pretty good. He had a 70 to 61 SO to BB ratio in 2009. It is always a good thing whenever you have close to a 1 to 1 SO to BB ratio.

In 2010, expect his BA to come up a little bit, as he had a .284 BA in 2008. A .260 BA with 40 RBI's are reasonable numbers to expect. Also, be ready for some more highlight defensive plays next year.

In conclusion, the lineup looks really solid for next year. This is a lineup that could seriously make a run for their money in the AL Central. They could also make it deep into the playoffs if everyone in this lineup produces.

A Look at Delmon Young

2010-01-06T22:11:00.010-06:00

Delmon Young was traded to the Twins a little over 2 years ago. Right now, many say the Tampa Bay Rays fleeced the Twins. The Rays got Jason Bartlett, Matt Garza, and Eduardo Morlan for Delmon Young, Brendon Harris, and Jason Pridie. Morlan and Pridie weren't key parts of the trade. Both of them haven't done anything so far, and neither of them look like they will make a significant impact in the majors. Jason Bartlett has been amazing for the Rays at SS, batting a line of .320/.389/.490 in 2009. Matt Garza has also been great for the Rays so far, capping off the 2008 season with a ALCS MVP award.

With those two players being great so far, I am going to take a look at how Delmon Young has progressed in the last 2 years for the Twins.

Delmon Young came into the Twins organization with super-star potential. In the first season for the Twins (2008), his line was .290/.336/.405. That really isn't too bad. His home run total did see a drop to 10 from 13 the previous season. However, he antagonized Gardenhire because he was un-coachable. The Twins organization was getting really mad that Delmon Young would not listen to their advice regarding his batting. The problem was that he would only listen to his father. His father was Delmon's coach throughout high school, and so he always wanted his advice.

In his second season for the Twins (2009), his line was .284/.308/.425. The line looks pretty much the same. One thing that isn't being looked at though, was his 1st half splits vs. his 2nd half splits. There was a marked improvement in his hitting. He started listening to the coaches for the first time at about the half way point. The key change that could be seen was his batting stance. In the first half of the season, he leaned back and put so much weight on his back foot that he was off balance. Because of that, he was having trouble not only getting the bat on the ball, but also had many more ground ball outs. Once he got to the second half of the season, he changed his stance to a slightly wider stance. He also didn't put all his weight on his back foot. The weight was divided equally. The result? A much higher BA, higher slugging, and half the amount of double plays.

Here is a look at his stats from the first half of the season to the second half:

Split

PA

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

BB

SO

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

GDP

1st Half

202

192

20

51

6

0

3

25

6

59

.266

.292

.344

.636

11

2nd Half

214

203

30

61

10

2

9

35

6

33

.300

.322

.502

.825

6

Split	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS		GDP
1st Half	202	192	20	51	6	0	3	25	6	59	.266	.292	.344	.636		11
2nd Half	214	203	30	61	10	2	9	35	6	33	.300	.322	.502	.825		6

His AB's were almost identical from the first half to the second half, so let's compare some of his stats from the first half to the second half.

Runs:

Delmon Young had 50% more runs scored in the second half than the first half (30 to 20). That is a pretty dramatic improvement.

Doubles:

He hit over 50% more doubles in the second half than the first half (10 to 6), a result of greater power and not hitting as many ground balls.

Home Runs:

This was one of the key changes for him. He had 3 times as many home runs in the second half than the first half (9 to 3). It seems that there has been more power in his swing with the changed batting stance.

Batting Average:

Young had a whopping .34 higher BA in the second half of the year than the first half (.300 to .266). A big part of that is he is batting with more consistent contact.

Slugging Percentage:

This stat saw by far the biggest change. Young had a whopping .502 Slugging Percentage in the second half compared to .344 in the first half. That is a .158 difference! Anything over .500 is considered very good. That bodes well for the future as the Twins want Young to be a slugging left fielder.

Double Plays:

Here is the interesting stat. Young had 11 ground ball double plays in the first half of the year. In the second half? Just 6! His first half number was almost cut in half. Double plays are big rally killers, so if he can continue to keep his double plays low, the Twins will have many more big rallies.

In conclusion, the Twins might still have that super-star player in Delmon Young. If he can continue to hit like he did in the second half of last year, he might get to the All-Star level sooner than many think.

My Top 7 Twins Prospects

2009-12-30T19:02:00.011-06:00

The Twins are known for building their team around players from their farm system. Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, Torii Hunter, and many more were drafted by the Twins. So let's take a look at the top 7 Twins prospects to see who to look forward to in the future. Why 7 and not 10 like most people do? Because it has been 7 years since the Twins have made it to the American League Championship Series in the playoffs. The last time they made it was in 2002 when they lost to the Angels. Hopefully this is a good luck charm.

1. Aaron Hicks, OF, Low A

DOB: October 1989 Bats: S Throws: R

MLB ETA: September 2012

Aaron Hicks was drafted by the Twins in 2008 in the first round of the first-year player draft. He has some phenomenal talent, as he showed this year in the minors. In the 2009 season, he had a .251/.353/.382 line (Batting Average/On Base Percentage/Slugging Percentage) in 251 AB's for the Beloit Snappers. The best part is he had a 40 to 55 BB/SO Ratio. He also has an above average arm in the outfield, which is a plus. He is only 20 years old so he has a lot of time to improve. Expect him to get a September call-up by 2012.

2. Wilson Ramos, C, Double-A

DOB: August 1987 Bats: R Throws: R

MLB ETA: September 2010

Ramos is the best catching prospect the Twins have. The problem is with Joe Mauer blocking his spot, he will probably have to settle for backup role as long as he is here. The good news is, if Mauer moves to a different position later in his career, Ramos will be able to take the starting role. Ramos is an elite catching prospect as he showed in 2009 with his line of .317/.341/.454 in 205 AB's. He is also is very good at throwing out runners. Expect him to get a September call-up next year.

3. Miguel Jean (Sano), SS, (International free agent signing)

DOB: May 1993 Bats: R Throws: R

MLB ETA: September 2014

Miguel Jean (Sano) was the best international free agent on the market this year at the international signing period. He has already gotten comparisons to Hanley Ramirez and A-Rod. It is always a good thing when you are compared to two of the best players in baseball right now. He is third on my list on pure speculation, as he has yet to play in the minors. Though after this year, he could very well be the top Twins prospect. He is a long ways away as he is only 16 years old. Expect him to be in the September call-ups in either 2014 or 2015.

4. Ben Revere, OF, High-A

DOB: May 1988 Bats: S Throws: R

MLB ETA: September 2011

Do you like speed? Do you like OBP? Do you like high batting average outfielders? If so, this guy is for you. Revere is only 5'9" (which is very small). The problem he has is he doesn't have much power, but that is the only bad thing about this guy. Revere had a .311/.372/.369 line last year for the Fort Myers Miracle. But that isn't the best part. Not only did he have a 40 to 34 BB/SO ratio, but he also had 45 stolen bases. Don't expect him to be playing this year for the Twins because of their crowded outfield. He should get a chance though in the majors by the the time call-ups happen in September of 2011.

5. Danny Valencia, 3B, Triple-A

DOB: September 1984 Bats: R Throws: R

MLB ETA: Beginning of 2010

Danny Valencia is by far the best 3rd base prospect the Twins have. He had a .284/.373/.482 line in 218 AB's in double-A before getting promoted to triple-A, where he batted a .286/.305/.454 line in triple-A in 269 AB's. He has shown signs of power, hitting 14 home runs between the two teams. His problem is when he moved up to triple-A, his BB/SO ratio plummeted. His BB/SO ratio was just 8 to 37, which is terrible plate discipline. This is a bad thing as this happened after he moved up from double-A, where he had great plate discipline. If he cannot get his walks up in Spring Training, he might not make it on the major league roster this year. I do expect his BB to go up enough though for him to get the starting third-base job in 2010.

6. Kyle Gibson, RHP, Just Drafted, will probably start in A ball

DOB: October 1987 Bats: R Throws: R

MLB ETA: September 2010

The Twins drafted Gibson with their first round draft pick last year. Gibson was expected to be a top 5 draft pick, but an injury before the draft scared teams away (Hopefully Adrian Peterson all over again). This guy has phenomenal talent, and could very well be one of the top three pitchers in the Twins rotation as early as 2011. He is probably going to start in A-ball next year, though he will move up the chain extremely fast. He should be able to get a September call-up this year.

7. David Bromberg, RHP, High-A

DOB: September 1987 Bats: L Throws: R

MLB ETA: Middle of 2011

Bromberg was the Twins pitcher of the year last year, and he certainly deserved it. He had a 2.70 ERA for the Fort Myers Miracle while going 13-4. His SO/BB ratio was 148 to 63, which is great. He also left batters to just a .224 batting average last year. He probably wont get a chance this year in the majors, as he is only in High-A, but expect him to maybe get promoted to the majors in the middle of 2011.

Prospects 8-14 (A little added bonus):

8. Angel Morales OF

9. Deolis Guerra RHP

10. Carlos Gutierrez RHP

11. Tyler Robertson LHP

12. Chris Parmelee OF/1B

13. Joe Benson OF

14. Jeff Manship RHP

My Twins Projected Starting Rotation for 2010

2009-12-23T15:29:00.006-06:00

What are you doing for Christmas? If you are staying in Minnesota, you might be doing something involving snow, like shoveling it. As you have probably heard, the Twin Cities expects to get as much as 12 inches of snow in the next 2 days. This is supposed to be the most snow on Christmas around here in a long time.

I wrote an article a couple weeks ago on the lineup for next year. Now it's time to talk about the starting rotation.

Now that the Twins have resigned Carl Pavano, the starting rotation is starting to look a little better. The Twins are also going to be getting back Kevin Slowey and Glen Perkins who both sustained injuries in 2009. At the moment, here is my projected starting rotation for opening day next April:

Nick Blackburn RHP

Scott Baker RHP

Kevin Slowey RHP

Carl Pavano RHP

Competing for 5th spot in the rotation:

Glen Perkins LHP

Brian Duensing LHP

Fransisco Liriano LHP

The first four pitchers seem to be locks in the starting rotation. The problem lies in the 5th spot. Glen Perkins had Left Shoulder Tendinitis last August. Hopefully he recovers though and can be at his full potential next year. The problem is there are two other pitchers who are fighting for that 5th spot: Brian Duensing and Fransisco Liriano. Duensing pitched great at the end of last year, which is why he might end up getting the spot next year. Liriano on the other hand went to the bullpen at the end of last year due to his terrible starts. Liriano might come back and be a dominant pitcher though, which is why he is always an option for the rotation. Anthony Swarzak would be an option for the fifth spot, but he is right-handed. The first four pitchers are all right-handed, which is why the 5th pitcher pretty much needs to be left-handed. It isn't a good thing to have an all right-handed rotation. The other three pitchers for that 5th spot are all left-handed.

One thing the Twins could do is sign a veteran left-hander. An article I wrote a few weeks ago suggested that Erik Bedard could be a left-handed option. He is someone who is a top starting pitcher when healthy, though he has been prone to injuries. He is probably the best option though if the Twins don't want to go internally.

If the Twins look internally, they will probably pick between the three left-handed pitchers: Perkins, Duensing, and Liriano. I am going to compare the three pitchers and see which might be the best option.

These stats are from the 2009 season.

	Perkins	Duensing	Liriano
IP	96.1	84.0	136.2
Wins	6	5	5
Losses	7	2	13
ERA	5.89	3.64	5.80
Hits	120	84	147
BB	23	31	65
SO	45	53	122
HR	13	7	21
WHIP	1.48	1.37	1.55

Looking at the three pitchers, Duensing by far looks to be the best of the three. Not only is his ERA over 2 points less than Perkins and Liriano, but his WHIP is also less. WHIP mean walks and hits per innings pitched. That stat is a great way of looking to see how many batters are getting on base per inning. Why do you want to know how many batters are getting on base? Because it shows how often the pitcher is getting into trouble in an inning. The last thing you want is batters to always be on base, which not only raises the amount of runs coming in, but also starts to tire out the defense.

So for now, I have to put Duensing as the 5th starting pitcher. That may of course change though. Like if the Twins sign Bedard, or if one of the other two have an amazing Spring Training.

In conclusion, my projected starting rotation is:

Nick Blackburn RHP

Scott Baker RHP

Kevin Slowey RHP

Carl Pavano RHP

Brian Duensing LHP

My Twins Projected Starting Lineup for 2010

2009-12-08T07:18:00.004-06:00

The Twins are known for filling holes in their lineup internally. Hopefully though they go out of their own farm system this year to fill a couple glaring holes .

At the moment, here is my projected starting lineup for 2010:

1. Denard Span: CF
2. J.J. Hardy: SS
3. Joe Mauer: C
4. Justin Morneau: 1st
5. Michael Cuddyer: RF
6. Jason Kubel: DH
7. Delmon Young: LF
8. Brendon Harris: 3rd
9. Nick Punto: 2nd

This lineup looks pretty good. The only question marks are the 8 and 9 spots in the lineup. Let's first take a look at Brendon Harris's stats in 2009:

123 Games
414 At Bats
44 Runs
22 Doubles
6 Home Runs
37 RBI's
29 BB
.261 BA
.310 OBP
.362 SLG
.672 OBS

I honestly don't think that is very good. Harris had over 414 AB's. He had only 6 Home Runs and 37 RBI's. That is way too low for a third baseman. The Twins really need to be looking at more production from a third baseman. In a previous article, I stated the Twins should get a free agent bat at third, and I am holding by that. I still think the Twins should get either Adrian Beltre or Troy Glaus, both of which are great players. Not only do both of those players have power, but they also have great defense.

Now for second base. Nick Punto is an interesting player. A lot of fans hate his lack of production. Let's take a look at his stats in 2009 though and see if the fans are correct:

Offense:
125 Games
359 At Bats
56 Runs
15 Doubles
1 Home Runs
38 RBI's
61 BB
.228 BA
.337 OBP
.284 SLG
.621 OBS

Defense:
+2.7 UZR (at 2nd base)

Looking at the stats I can't blame the fans. His power is terrible, and his .228 Batting Average doesn't help the cause. Finally, his defense, which is hyped up as being amazing, is actually below average according to his UZR. (UZR is how many runs he gave up compared to the average second baseman. +2.7 means that Punto gave up 2.7 more runs than the average 2nd baseman.)

I can't see why Punto is getting paid $4 mil a year for what he does.

The verdict: Punto probably shouldn't be the starting second baseman. He is a perfect super utility infielder though. Gardenhire loves Punto's chemistry on the team, so he definitely shouldn't leave. His stats don't warrant him to be the starting second baseman.

What are the options though other than Punto? Let's take a look at a few options:

Dan Uggla:
Uggla is an option for the Twins if they wish to trade for a second baseman. He would probably cost the Twins a lot of top prospects though. It is probably worth it though, as a power hitting second baseman isn't something you can find very often.

Orlando Hudson:
Hudson had a decent year last year for the Dodgers. He is definitely an upgrade over Nick Punto. He could also probably get signed in Free Agency for a reasonable amount. Finally, Hudson wouldn't cost the Twins a draft pick as he wasn't offered arbitration.

Mark DeRosa:
He is probably the player the Twins would want the most. They have shown a lot of interest in him. He has had two consecutive 20+ home run seasons. His other stats were also decent.

Of the three players, I think the Twins would most likely go after Mark DeRosa. That is probably the best option too considering that Dan Uggla would require the Twins to trade most of their farm system.

This is my projected starting lineup if the two players I want end up coming to the Twins:

1. Denard Span: CF
2. J.J. Hardy: SS
3. Joe Mauer: C
4. Justin Morneau: 1st
5. Michael Cuddyer: RF
6. Jason Kubel: DH
7. Adrian Beltre/Troy Glaus: 3rd
8. Mark DeRosa: 2nd
9. Delmon Young: LF

If the Twins have that lineup going into 2010, they will be a force to be reckoned with.

Who is the Solution at Starting Pitcher?

2009-11-18T07:53:00.004-06:00

Since trading Johan Santana, the Twins have been lacking something huge -- a top starter.

There are a few options in the free agent market for a top starter this year. The problem is the Twins will not spend highly for a player like Lackey or Randy Wolf, so the pitcher would either have to be someone had an off-year or got injured this year.

Let's take a look at a few of the options that are being talked about for the Twins in the free agent market, including a somewhat unusual choice.

Rich Harden (28) - Type B (Would not cost the Twins their draft pick)

Harden is a player that is amazing when healthy. But that's the thing, when he is healthy. Here is his innings pitched followed by his ERA from the last 5 years:

Year---IP--ERA
2005: 128 - 2.53
2006: 46.2 - 4.24
2007: 25.2 - 2.45
2008: 148 - 2.07
2009: 141 - 4.09

Look at the innings pitched. The reason his innings pitched are much lower than normal is because of injuries. It's expected each year that he will be injured with something, so you just can't expect him to come in and pitch 200 innings and carry the team. Though when healthy, he can be a dominating pitcher (see 2005, 2007, and 2008).

Harden would be a great option for the Twins who are generally willing to take a risk on a player's health, as shown by their signing or Joe Crede last year. He could probably be signed to a 1-2 year contract because of all the injuries. Maybe 2 years $14 million?

Erik Bedard (31) - Type B (Would not cost the Twins their draft pick)

Erik Bedard has the same issue as Harden. Bedard is amazing when healthy, though he just underwent shoulder surgery... Again... Bedard seems to have been very injury prone the last two years. Bedard threw only 81 innings in 2008, and 83 innings in 2009. Though before 2008, Bedard was considered much healthier.

Erik Bedard should be fairly inexpensive because of all the injuries, though he could be like winning the lottery if healthy next year. He could probably be had on a 1-2 year deal because of how injury prone he is. Maybe 2 years $14 million?

Jarrod Washburn (35) (Not a Type A or B free agent.)

Washburn was having a career year this year for Seattle. Though once he was traded to Detroit, it all seemed to go downhill. 2.64 ERA for Seattle in 20 starts, but then a 7.33 ERA for Detroit in 8 starts. To make things worse, Washburn was having knee problems toward the end of the year. The result of the knee problem was surgery.

The Twins shouldn't go anywhere near Jarrod Washburn. Before last year, his ERA was nothing special.

Ben Sheets (31) (Not a Type A or B free agent.)

Sheets hasn't been talked about a lot. It seems that people forget that this guy had a 3.09 ERA in 2008. Though he did have flexor tendon surgery and missed all of 2009. If he could be signed on a one-year deal with incentives, then he would be well worth the risk. If he does come back to form next year, then he could easily place himself toward the top of the Twins pitching staff. Maybe 1 year $4 million with up to $4 million in incentives?

Between those four pitchers, the Twins should have their top focus on Rich Harden. He has the best chance of the four to be that top pitcher for the Twins. If they cannot land Harden, they should go after ether Bedard or Sheets. They are both talented, and very injury prone, so either would be fine. They are both lottery picks though, as no one knows if they will do terrible, or great.

The Twins shouldn't even consider Washburn. Period. He is not the starter they should be looking to get. If the Twins wanted Washburn, they would of just held onto Livan Hernandez.

Who do you think should be the Twins top free agent target for starting pitcher?

A Look at the Joe Mauer Contract Situation

2009-11-14T18:30:00.015-06:00

There has been a lot of buzz around the Internet recently about the Joe Mauer contract. But what is the difference between this article and every other article on the Joe Mauer situation? Well, this article speculates that the contract negotiation is going to require a little bit of creative thinking by Ron Shapiro (Joe Mauer's agent), which will be explained later on.

The Twins need to sign Mauer to a long-term deal. The Twins would lose a lot of fans if the they were to let him walk after next year.

Joe Mauer is 26 years old. That means that this contract would be going through his prime. His numbers have already been outstanding, and with his age it doesn't look like his numbers will drop off anytime soon.

Because of this, the Twins will be looking at a hefty contract, but just how hefty?

Well let's start by looking at the Twins current payroll:

2009: $65,299,266

With all of their arbitration eligible players, the Twins will probably be on the hook for about $72 million. According to many news reports, the Twins want to raise their payroll in 2010 to a maximum of $95-100 million. Joe Mauer's contract is paying $12.5 million at the moment. If the Twins spend about $12 million on free agents this year, the payroll will reach $84 million. That should leave an additional $11 million to $16 million for Mauer's contract. Given that many sources believe that Joe Mauer could command a free agent contract on the open market of $25 million per year, the financial ability to sign Mauer to a long-term contract is there. The question is how much will be available to surround him with the talent to compete for a World Series appearance.

I think the first year of his new contract will land $26 million, and I will explain why later on. The Twins seem to have the payroll space to be able to do that this year. They would even have $3-4 million more to spend during the season on new acquisitions.

Now that the facts show there is enough money to spend on Mauer, let's look at just how much it might take.

Mauer has 3 batting titles at age 26. All three were done at catcher. Mauer is the first player to ever have 3 batting titles at catcher. Remember, he is only 26! This year he also hit 28 home runs, and drove in 96 RBIs. To top it off? He led in BA, OBP, and slugging percentage this year!

Defensively, Mauer is just as good. He just won his second consecutive Gold Glove Award this year. His range at catcher is also considered among the best in the game. Finally, when he is behind the plate, it seems like the younger pitchers feel more confident when pitching to him than any other catcher on the staff.

Joe Mauer's hometown is St. Paul, Minnesota. This means that he might be willing to accept a slight "hometown discount". This does not mean though that he would probably take anything under $20 million a year. He is probably going to want $22-23 million per year from the Twins. That is about what Mark Teixeira got per year in his new contract, and he is 3 years older. That amount would still be less than what he could get on the open market. If he stays in Minnesota though, he probably wouldn't want to take all of the Twins payroll. This being because he would probably want the Twins to be able to sign the players necessary to be able to make a World Series run.

Mauer is probably going to also want the most amount of years possible. My guess is the max the Twins would give is 6 years considering he is a catcher. The reason being is you never know if a catcher will not be able to play that position anymore because of injuries that arise from the position. If Mauer is for some reason only DHing at age 30, he would be worth considerably less per year than if he was catching.

My guess on what it will take for the Twins to resign Mauer? 6 years $132 million. Another guess is this new contract will void his current one. With the Twins voiding the current contract, it means Mauer would make that much more money. It also means it's one less year Mauer is committed to. He would only be 32 at the end of the contract, so that means he could test the free agent market at that point if he so chooses.

I also think that the Twins will try and front-load the deal. They will do this because they would not only have extra money to spend each year moving forward, but then they don't have to worry as much if Mauer for some reason can't play catcher 5 years from now as they wouldn't be committed to as much money later in his contract.

Finally, this contract may have an unusual clause designed to ensure that the hometown discount is used to surround Joe Mauer with the players needed to compete for a title. It wouldn't be surprising to see a six-year, $132 million contract where the Twins have to spend at least $100 million on payroll each year. If the Twins do not spend the required $100 million a year, then Mauer would have the right to opt out of his contract and become an unrestricted free agent. I don't even know if this type of a contract would be allowed under the Collective Bargaining Agreement or MLB rules. But either way this is a very interesting idea that should be thought about.

Here is how I think the money would be spread out:

2010: $26 million
2011: $24 million
2012: $22 million
2013: $22 million
2014: $20 million
2015: $18 million

Now the final question is: When will Mauer resign with the Twins?

My guess: Sometime between Christmas and New Years. He is probably going to wait and see if the Twins are willing to stay competitive or not. Mauer will probably not know the answer to that until after the Winter Meetings, which is in December. If the contract is signed during that frame, it would make the holiday season that much more memorable.

What do you think it will take to resign Mauer?

Who is the Solution at 3rd Base?

2009-11-14T08:43:00.009-06:00

Ever since Corey Koskie, it seems the Twins have never really had a third baseman who solidified the position.

The Twins are probably going to try and get someone in Free Agency.

Let's take a look at some of the free agent third baseman that are available:

Miguel Tejada (36) - Type A
Chone Figgins (32) - Type A
Adrian Beltre (31) - Type B
Mark DeRosa (35) - Type B
Troy Glaus (33) - Type B
Melvin Mora (38) - Type B
Joe Crede (32)
Pedro Feliz (35)

These are the main players that are believed to be targets. Also included are all of the other Type A and B free agents at 3rd as they could be options.

Let's look at these players one at a time:

Miguel Tejada - He is 36 years old and was accused of taking performance enhancing drugs. Sorry, he is not even someone the Twins will consider.

Chone Figgins - This is the guy that seems to be getting a lot of talk. He has everything the Twins like: speed, defense, OBP, and SB. The problem is the price. Not only would he cost us our first round draft pick (Type A Free Agent), he would also probably cost us somewhere around 5 years and 50 million. I just don't think they will spend that much unless they trade away Joe Nathan. The Twins cannot spend all of their available money on just a third baseman as they have other glaring needs (Veteran Pitcher, resigning Joe Mauer, and maybe getting a second baseman.).

Adrian Beltre - Seems like a player that the Twins were always interested in. Problem is, almost all his stats have dropped off this year. Most teams will probably think it's just a fluke though, as he still had fantastic defense (21 UZR). He is still a great defensive third baseman and if he comes back to 2008 form offensively he would be the power hitter they always wanted. Also, as a Type B Free Agent, he wouldn't cost the Twins any draft picks.

Mark DeRosa - 35 years old, and had a career year in 2008. Yes, he had more home runs in 2009, though most other stats took a dip including 35 points off his batting average. Also, he is not that great defensively (-8.7 UZR). I just don't think the Twins would go after him.

Troy Glaus - He underwent arthroscopic right shoulder surgery and barely played last year. This is the kind of player the Twins like to go after normally as he has shown big numbers throughout his career. The Twins could probably give him a 1-2 year deal with incentives so he can redeem himself. Definitely someone to look at if their top choices are taken. He also wouldn't cost them any draft picks.

Melvin Mora - 38 years old, stats dropped a good amount this year... I don't think the Twins would go anywhere near this guy.

Joe Crede - Underwent his third back surgery this year. Wrong side of 30. Continues to get injured. If all other options are gone maybe the Twins would consider him on a 1 year incentive laden deal.

Pedro Feliz - This is the most interesting player that I have been hearing about. Defensive stud (9 UZR), can hit 10+ homers a year, and has shown to be able to drive in 80+ rbi's a year. Also he probably won't cost a lot. Finally the Twins wouldn't have to give up any draft picks for him. What's the down side with him? He is 35, which means he could start a decline at any point. Just like Crede, Feliz is probably a backup option if they can't get who they want.

In conclusion, I think that the Twins should get Adrian Beltre. Not only is he a great defensive third baseman (21 UZR), but he also could be that offensive weapon they have been looking for for years at third. It might take some money to get him, but it shouldn't take as much as Chone Figgins.

If the Twins cannot get Adrian Beltre, I think the Twins second option should be Troy Glaus. He won't cost a lot as he barely played last year, and could be a huge offensive weapon. He had a 5 UZR in 2008, which is above average, and could hit 25+ home runs.

If both of those players are gone, they will probably go after either Crede or Feliz.

Who do you guys think should be the Twins top free agent target at third base?

Little birdie note: Justin Morneau and his wife were recently spotted in London, on their way to Ireland for a vacation.

Ellsbury vs. Gomez

2009-11-12T06:59:00.013-06:00

So the Santana trade was a few years back, and some people still think the Twins got fleeced on the trade. Though some people think they should have easily taken the Ellsbury package over the Gomez package.

I am going to try and break this down the best I can.

Ellsbury offensively in the last 3 years:

SEASON TEAM G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG
2007 Red Sox 33 116 20 41 7 1 3 18 59 8 15 9 0 .394 .509 .353
2008 Red Sox 145 554 98 155 22 7 9 47 218 41 80 50 11 .336 .394 .280
2009 Red Sox 153 624 94 188 27 10 8 60 259 49 74 70 12 .355 .415 .301

Gomez offensively in the last 3 years:

SEASON TEAM G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG
2007 Mets 58 125 14 29 3 0 2 12 38 8 27 12 3 .288 .304 .232
2008 Twins 153 577 79 149 24 7 7 59 208 25 142 33 11 .296 .360 .258
2009 Twins 137 315 51 72 15 5 3 28 106 22 72 14 7 .287 .337 .229

Looking at the two players, it looks like Ellsbury easily wins offensively in 2009 right?. Well, part of that though was that Gomez only got about 300 AB's. If you look as if it was 600 AB's, he actually improved from his 2008 year. Gomez's 2008 year was actually pretty close to Ellsbury's in 2008. Gomez had almost the same amount of walks in 2009 than 2008. That means that Gomez almost doubled his walks per AB in the last year. That is a huge improvement. Now note this: Gomez is two years younger than Ellsbury. That means the comparison should be between Gomez's offense in 2009 to Ellsbury's in 2007 right? Well, if you do it that way, Gomez looks like he will be much better in two years than Ellsbury was in 2009. I have to give the edge to Ellsbury for right now, but I think Gomez has a lot more talent considering he is two years younger.

Now lets look at the UZR ratings, which pretty much shows how much range they have in the outfield (how many balls they can get to):

Gomez: 11.5
Ellsbury: -16.5

That means that Ellsbury gave up 16.5 more runs than the average center fielder. Gomez on the other hand gave up 11.5 less runs than the average center fielder. That is a difference of 28 runs! That is why I easily give the defensive edge to Gomez.

So between offense and defense, I have to give the edge to Gomez, as I feel his center field defense has saved so many games that I can cut him slight slack on his offense. His offense is only going to get better according to the numbers while learning how to play defense like Ellsbury is trying to do is going to be a lot harder.

So since I gave Gomez the edge, lets look now at the Gomez for Hardy trade.

Gomez's defense is superb right? I mean his UZR rating is one of the best if not the best out of all center fielders. Well lets look at Hardy's UZR rating:

Hardy: 11 UZR over his 5 year career.

When putting into effect how much better J.J. Hardy is offensively at the moment, I have to give the edge in that trade to Minnesota. At least for the short-term. If Gomez becomes the player that I think he will be, long-term Gomez might be a much better player.

We will just have to wait and see.

A Look at the Santana Trade

2009-11-10T17:19:00.004-06:00

This was a very interesting situation a few years back.

Santana was forcing a trade. He had one year left on his contract and the Twins needed to decide whether to trade him or keep him for one year and then let him walk.

The Twins decided to trade him to the Mets, though some people think that the Twins should have taken Boston's or the Yankee's offer. I am going to break this down.

To start, nobody knows if the Yankees or Red Sox actually made offers. Santana's value was lower because Santana was not only forcing a trade, but Gardenhire also wanted a trade done because he didn't want Santana's attitude on this whole situtation in his clubhouse. Santana also had a no-trade clause, so he took away all the leverage that the Twins had.

Another reason that the Red Sox and Yankees didn't want Santana anymore was because Santana was showing a decline in velocity. This was a big warning sign.

So because of that, the Twins traded for four of the Mets top prospects. Though prospects are just what they are: prospects. Just because they didn't get as much as the Orioles did when they fleeced Seattle (Bedard trade) doesn't mean that it was a bad deal.

Lets break this whole trade down though real quick:

Santana

for

Kevin Mulvey>>>> Jon Rauch
Carlos Gomez>>>> JJ Hardy
Deolis Guerra (Top pitching prospect, 20 years old in AA)
Philip Humber (Now a free agent)

So in return the Twins now have Jon Rauch, who was amazing for us toward the end of last season. It seems as if he was the only person the last month+ of the season who could hold a game for Nathan. JJ Hardy was an All-star SS and can hit 25 homers 80 RBIs. Yes, he had a bad 2009 season, but it looked as though he wanted out of Milwaukee. Maybe that is why his stats were down, though that will be found out next year. Finally, Deolis Guerra, still has talent at only 20 years old and could easily be a #1 to #2 starter in the next 4 years.

If the Twins would have done the trade with the Yankees or Red Sox, they would have gotten:

Ellsbury (His defense in center field this year was sub-par, -16.5 UZR.)
Lowrie (Can't hold down the starting short stop job..)
Masterson (Traded to the Indians, though did pretty bad...)
Bowden (Ok prospect, #3-4 Starter ceiling though.)

or

Lester (Ace for Red Sox right now, turned out to be a good player..)
Crisp (Yuck)
Lowrie (See Above)
Bowden (See Above)

or

Hughes (3+ era in the bullpen? This is someone who was supposed to be a top starter...)
Cabrera (Ok batting average with ok defense? The Twins already have their hands on Delmon Young)
+an ok prospect.

So after looking over that, the only deal that would have been better was the Lester deal, and that is in hindsight. Remember he was coming back from cancer. No one knew if he would come back great or not. Also, note that the Twins did not really want to trade Santana to someone in the American League as then they would have to face him. That in itself is a good reason why they ended up trading him to the Mets.

I personally think that having Jon Rauch, JJ Hardy, and Deolis Guerra is much better then having any of the other packages (excluding the Lester deal).

What do you think?